Fascinating analysis by John O'Sullivan of the likely Turkish fallout from the French referendum. Turkey is now extremely unlikely to be admitted into the EU, given the state of European public opinion. This, says O'Sullivan, will cause three extremely dangerous crises. Turkey will become more hostile to the US as well as to Europe, and it will attribute its rejection to European hostility to Islam, both of which will increase Islamist terrorism; and it will sharpen Europe's own identity crisis.

The way through this, says O'Sullivan, is Plan B: for the EU and US to form a a transatlantic free trade area which non-EU European countries including Turkey would be invited to join:

'Laid out in this way, such a Plan B inevitably sounds utopian. Many of its individual features, however, have been widely discussed for years. Indeed, a full-scale EU-U.S. free trade area almost came about a decade ago. At the time it was vetoed by the French. But Europeans might now see the value of a program for economic integration that does not involve free immigration -- but that would offer Turkey a solid substitute for EU membership, mollify the Islamic world, and build an long-term economic bridge to Russia, North Africa, the Middle East and Latin America.'

It's worth a try. But I fear it will not work, because Europe is the prize.

Posted by melanie at June 1, 2005