A salutary note of caution from Daniel Pipes. Writing about the wind of change blowing through the Middle East, he observes:

'These developments find some neo-conservatives in a state of near-euphoria. Rich Lowry of the National Review calls them “a marvelous thing.” Charles Krauthammer of the Washington Post writes that “We are at the dawn of a glorious, delicate, revolutionary moment in the Middle East.”

I too welcome these developments, but more warily. Having been trained in Middle Eastern history makes me perhaps more aware of what can go wrong:

* Yes, Mahmoud Abbas wishes to end the armed struggle against Israel but his call for a greater jihad against the “Zionist enemy” points to his intending another form of war to destroy Israel.
* The Iraqi elections are bringing Ibrahim Jaafari, a pro-Iranian Islamist, to power.
* Likewise, the Saudi elections proved a boon for the Islamist candidates.
* Mubarak’s promise is purely cosmetic; but should real presidential elections one day come to Egypt, Islamists will probably prevail there too.
* Removing Syrian control in Lebanon could well lead to Hezbollah, a terrorist group, becoming the dominant power there.
* Eliminating the hideous Assad dynasty could well bring in its wake an Islamist government in Damascus.

Note a pattern? Other than the sui generis Palestinian case, one main danger threatens to undo the good news: that a too-quick removal of tyranny unleashes Islamist ideologues and opens their way to power. Sadly, Islamists uniquely have what it takes to win elections: the talent to develop a compelling ideology, the energy to found parties, the devotion to win supporters, the money to spend on electoral campaigns, the honesty to appeal to voters, and the will to intimidate rivals.'

All doubtless very true. Which only serves to confirm the point that quick-fix elections are not the end of the process but only the beginning; that it is free societies based on the rule of law, independent courts, proper opposition parties and a free press that are crucial if the aggression of rogue states is to be neutered; and that the big change the west has to make is to believe that most ordinary people everywhere do not want to be jailed, tortured or murdered whether by a despotic eye-doctor or a religious fanatic, and therefore to be prepared to hold assorted feet to the fire until those free societies are achieved.