Horrific as Monday’s bomb in Iraq was, some extraordinary developments have been happening in the Middle East which suggest that President Bush’s much-reviled doctrine that democracy in Iraq might nudge surrounding rogue states towards free societies is actually having an effect. A wind of freedom seems to be blowing through the region. The amazing scenes in Lebanon, where a popular revolt against the Syrian occupation has forced out the pro-Syrian Lebanese government; Egypt’s President Mubarak announcing that there are to be contested elections; the Saudi foreign minister announcing that women are to vote in Saudi elections; and the anger among ordinary Palestinians at last weekend’s Tel Aviv bombing, in contrast to their normal jubilation at the deaths of Israelis. A striking account in the Guardian about the local reaction to the bomber’s family captures this new mood there:

‘For seven days after a burial a Palestinian family receives mourners, normally a big social event involving colourful banners and patriotic music. But yesterday seven members of the family occupied the otherwise empty chairs and when asked if Abdullah's death had achieved anything they all shook their heads, and one said no in English… Sami Qadan said the whole town was shocked and angered by the bombing and in protest no one was paying respects to the family. “Things were getting better and then no sooner do we have money coming in again then it is stopped by this suicide bombing. This intifada has killed us and the wall has destroyed us. We cannot even leave our homes and we want it to stop,” he said… Ibrahim said that the family was extremely angry with the people who had chosen and prepared Abdullah for his suicide mission. “I don't know who they are but we want them to stop this and reach out their hands for peace. That is the only way the situation will improve.” ’

However, this has to be balanced against a rally that was eventually held in Hebron to celebrate the murder of the Israelis – and as HonestReporting.Com observes, to almost complete media silence. Nevertheless, even a partial shift in Palestinian opinion is noteworthy.

So what has caused this sudden little rash of pointers towards freedom and sanity? As ever, Mark Steyn in the Telegraph cut to the chase:

‘Why is all this happening? Answer: January 30. Don't take my word for it, listen to Walid Jumblatt, big-time Lebanese Druze leader and a man of impeccable anti-American credentials: “I was cynical about Iraq. But when I saw the Iraqi people voting three weeks ago, eight million of them, it was the start of a new Arab world. The Berlin Wall has fallen.”… In the space of a month, the Iraq election has become the prism through which all other events in the region are seen.’

This is a long and rocky road. No-one pretends freedom will come to the Arab world and peace and order will be established overnight. Indeed, it is almost certain that such moves in this direction will merely redouble the efforts of those impelled in the first place by fear of freedom to wreak further carnage in the attempt to halt its progress. For my money, prospects of peace for Israel remain ambiguous. And the menace of Iran, hurtling towards nuclear weapons, remains undimmed. But who would have predicted, before Saddam’s fall, that Arab rogue states would have made any tentative moves in the right direction? And who can deny that these things are only happening because America has drawn its line in the sand -- and because those brave Iraqis have shown their Arab brothers and sisters that, if they only will it, they too can live free from tyranny?

Terrible things will, alas, continue to happen. But for the first time, there is hope.

Posted by melanie at March 2, 2005