Thanks to Benny Peiser of Liverpool John Moores university for pointing out that a whole batch of studies reported in CO2 Science Magazine knocks a serious crater in the man-made global warming theory. They show that, far from increases in greenhouse gases preceding — and thus allegedly causing — warming of air temperature, what happened was the other way round.

Article one says that a number of studies show that that

‘the decline in atmospheric CO2 concentration post-dated the decline in air temperature at the onset of the four glacial epochs that are evident in the Vostok ice core data.’

Article two says

‘close examination of the rise in temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentration at the end of the last glacial maximum (based upon a linear fit of the data) revealed the increase in temperature took place at 17,800 ± 300 years ago, while the increase in CO2 took place at 17,000 ± 200 years ago. On this basis, the authors conclude that "the start of the CO2 increase thus lagged the start of the [temperature] increase by 800 ± 600 years."

Article 3 says atmospheric CO2 variations are the result of temperature variations and not vice versa.

Article 4 says that

‘in all three of the most recent glacial terminations, the earth warmed well before there was any increase in the air's CO2 content. In the words of the authors, "the time lag of the rise in CO2 concentrations with respect to temperature change is on the order of 400 to 1000 years during all three glacial-interglacial transitions." During the penultimate (next to last) warm period, there is also a 15,000-year time interval where distinct cooling does not elicit any change in atmospheric CO2; and when the air's CO2 content gradually drops over the next 20

,000 years, air temperatures either rise or remain fairly constant.’

Article 5 says

‘Petit et al. (1999) reconstructed histories of surface air temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentration from data obtained from a Vostok ice core that covered the prior 420,000 years, determining that during glacial inception "the CO2 decrease lags the temperature decrease by several thousand years" and that "the same sequence of climate forcing operated during each termination." Likewise, working with sections of ice core records from around the times of the last three glacial terminations, Fischer et al. (1999) found that "the time lag of the rise in CO2 concentrations with respect to temperature change is on the order of 400 to 1000 years during all three glacial-interglacial transitions."

‘On the basis of atmospheric CO2 data obtained from the Antarctic Taylor Dome ice core and temperature data obtained from the Vostok ice core, Indermuhle et al. (2000) studied the relationship between these two parameters over the period 60,000-20,000 years BP (Before Present). One statistical test performed on the data suggested that shifts in the air's CO2 content lagged shifts in air temperature by approximately 900 years, while a second statistical test yielded a mean lag-time of 1200 years. Similarly, in a study of air temperature and CO2 data obtained from Dome Concordia, Antarctica for the period 22,000-9,000 BP -- which time interval includes the most recent glacial-to-interglacial transition -- Monnin et al. (2001) found that the start of the CO2 increase lagged the start of the temperature increase by 800 years. Then, in another study of the 420,000-year Vostok ice-core record, Mudelsee (2001) concluded that variations in atmospheric CO2 concentration lagged variations in air temperature by 1,300 to 5,000 years…

‘In consequence of these several observations, the role of CO2 as a primary driver of climate change on earth would appear to be going, going, gone; while the CO2 warming amplification hypothesis rings mighty hollow.’

To put it mildly.

Posted by melanie at October 20, 2004