An apparently well-informed piece in Ma'ariv International reveals why France uncharacteristically supported the US in tabling a UN demand for Syria to get out of Lebanon, and indicates how Iran and Syria are manoeuvring to pose an even greater threat to both Israel and the world. According to this report, Iran's Revolutionary Islamic guards, along with its proxy army the Hezbullah, have been trying to supplant Yasser Arafat's Fatah in Lebanon. Despite the fact that Arafat beat them off, Iran has not given up. It has put 300 men into Gaza, along with 10-15 al Qaeda operatives. The reason, says the Ma'ariv article, is this:

'Iran has two major strategic goals. One is to buy time until it becomes a nuclear power, which it believes will buy it the same immunity from US attack that a similar status has brought Pyongyang. The second is to prevent the US from permanently entrenching itself across the Shat el Arab river in Iraq, and seeing Iraq fall into less than friendly hands...A base on the Lebanese coast under the protection of Beirut’s Syrian overlords would enable Teheran to project power southwards towards Israel, northwards towards Turkey and westwards towards Europe. Teheran hopes this would significantly increase its standing and prestige in the predominantly Sunni Arab world by succeeding in pressuring Israel into accepting a humiliating and unfavorable settlement, something the Arab world has singularly failed to achieve. Such a base would also enable Iran to initiate terror attacks against France and other European countries, to intimidate them into not joining the US in targeting Iran’s nuclear facilities, either via sanctions or military action. It could also serve a base to mount attacks on the vital Turkish oil port of Ceyhan, the planned major terminus of future pipelines designed to lessen the West’s dependence on Middle East oil by piping oil from the newly discovered Caspian Sea oilfield.'

It goes without saying that this geopolitical positioning is not being reported in Britain, where news about the Middle East is stuck in its well-worn grooves of ignorance, idiocy and prejudice. The fact is, however, that Iran presents an unconscionable threat which needs to be dealt with as a matter of urgency. The crucial question is whether a second-term Bush administration (don't even ask about Kerry) would have the bottle.

Posted by melanie at September 8, 2004