All those who have been focusing their opposition to the EU constitution on calls for a referendum are due for a bit of prolonged thumb sucking. Tony Blair is expected to bow to the inevitable and say in a few hours' time that he will indeed call such a referendum. Yes, it's a massive U-turn. Yes, the current public mood makes this appear to be a desperate gamble. But apart from the likelihood that Blair will almost certainly fix the timing/question/campaign to bamboozle the public, if the referendum is not to be held until after the general election this means that debate over its provisions will be thwarted until then. As the terms of the constitution are finally agreed by member states, challenges to Blair over its various provisions will now be swtatted away on the grounds that the public will eventually have their say, just as the Euro arguments have been stymied by the same ruse. Even more urgently, the issue is now dead in the water for both the European elections and the general election, on the basis that it's not an election issue because the people will decide.

This is because of a tactical error. Allowing the attack on the constitution to become focused on the the non-referendum was wrong. The attack should have always been focused principally on the constitution itself. This is because the main argument should have been that it would be unconscionable for the British Parliament to vote for the end of British self-government. Yes, a referendum was always going to be necessary if Parliament ratified the thing; but the real issue should have been that Parliament should not ratify it in the first place. But instead, opponents allowed themselves to go on and on about the need for a referendum, confident that Blair would never take the gamble. Well now he is, and they're once more on the back foot. Let the people decide, cried the referendumites. Well, now they're going to. As a result, the issue has effectively been kicked into touch. It must somehow be dragged back.

Posted by melanie at April 20, 2004