The Spanish debacle, as has been noted, changes the political chemistry of Europe. The new Spanish Prime Minister has declared that he will leap back into bed with France and Germany -- 'Old Europe' -- thus leaving Tony Blair isolated in his (always quixotic) dream of breaking the hegemony of that alliance and transforming the EU dinosaur into the cutting edge of the new transnational dawn, or whatever it is he believes in.
This may transform British politics in a somewhat unexpected way. For it puts the EU constitution -- which many (prematurely) believed had been whacked into the long grass for the forseeable future, firmly back in play. As the Telegraph reports:
'The incoming Spanish prime minister, Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero, pledged an "accelerated" deal on the European constitution as his first order of business. "I want Europe to see us again as pro-European," he said. "My feeling is that the election result has caused surprise but a lot of satisfaction in Europe."
'The European constitution was blocked by Spain and Poland at an acrimonious summit before Christmas. They feared the loss of their increased voting status secured in the Nice Treaty. But Spain's Enrique Baron Crespo, the leader of the Socialist bloc in the European Parliament, said the political landscape had been transformed overnight. "Spain is no longer blocking the constitution, it's as simple as that," he said. "And we're not at war with France any more: France is a very important ally and we want to make sure that the Franco-German axis works again." Mr Baron Crespo said Spain would rejoin the drive for European integration, accusing the outgoing prime minister, Jose Maria Aznar, of pursuing a semi-detached "Eurosceptic" policy along British lines.'
If this happens, it will hand the British Tories an electoral gift. For the public is passionately opposed to the EU constitution. The Tories will suddenly have a totemic issue which may well galvanise voters out of their 'they'reallthesamelyingbastardsandasuselessaseachother' torpor.
Which is yet another reason why Tony Blair may be feeling rather less than totally enthusiastic about his neophyte socialist comrade in Madrid.