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« A strange absence of intelligence
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February 02, 2004
Dr Kay's complaint
Interesting piece by Michael Ledeen on Dr David Kay. It rather bears out my view that what lies behind the weapons inspector's outburst -- which has detonated likely inquiries into possible intelligence failures here and in the US --is not a belief that Iraq was not trying to produce WMD but rather his white-hot fury at the incompetence of the US machine in failing to look for the stuff properly. Key passage: 'Last August I called him in Baghdad to tell him that I had a person — a good person, like himself, a person I trust — who was prepared to take him to an underground laboratory from which a quantity of enriched uranium had been taken a few years ago, and smuggled to Iran. Wow, he said, let's go look. Have the guy call me, we'll check it out. 'The guy could never get David on the phone because the CIA decided not to investigate after all. The CIA never went to look, and I don't know if that stuff was real or fictional. But this case was totally different from the Potemkin WMDs of David's elegant theory. Because my guy was in contact with the people who said they had moved the stuff from Iraq to Iran. They were now sick, and wanted to tell their story before they got much worse. But, as I say, the CIA never went to look. They pretended they wanted to, they finally met with my guy, but they told him they didn't believe his story (although there was really no reason to either believe it or not, it was a matter of either looking or not, and if you didn't look you couldn't know anything one way or the other). He said the people who had done the smuggling had a full description of the material on a CD Rom, which they were willing to provide. CIA wasn't interested. And that's the end of it, so far as I know. 'So there's one instance where the CIA wasn't curious enough to take a ride and look at a lab. And I ask myself whether there were other such cases. I know of other examples, not involving WMDs, but involving Saddam's money, where CIA refused to look, and the stories they were told — and decided not to believe — turned out to be true. 'And then I read the words of Peter Hain, the leader of the House of Commons in London. He says "I saw evidence that was categorical on Saddam possessing chemical and biological weapons of mass destruction." And we know, from the recent Hutton Report, that Tony Blair's claim that Saddam could be prepared to launch WMD attacks against Coalition forces "within 45 minutes," had come directly from MI6. Were the Brits fooled too? Hain insists they were not. 'And then there's the story from the Syrian journalist in Paris who claims to have maps from high-ranking military intelligence officials in Damascus, identifying the sites where, he says, some of Saddam's stockpiles were moved. Have we checked that story?' Good question. What's the answer? Posted by melanie at February 2, 2004
Comments
Don't you wish we really knew why George Bush went to war? Do you think he knows himself? Posted by: Spunkymonkey at February 2, 2004 04:03 PMMelanie, get a guidebook and see what proportion of CIA staff is deskbound in DC; and just how few field-agents they have; and then how few Arabic-speaking field agents they have. You seem to have swallowed the propaganda; the CIA does not have the human resources and is boot-strapped.....we called it the peace dividend I think - not that their Russian-speakers would be that hot either. Why doesn't the West understand; bin Laden can only hurt them by using their own shortcomings. He can only profit from mistakes and sloppiness; and we have seen that aplenty. Time to stop setting targets, and address issues. Posted by: Romulus at February 2, 2004 04:06 PMWhilst there may not be large stockpliles of WMD, I find it hard to believe that there are absolutely no WMD in Iraq. That seems the least likely of all. Perhaps it all comes down to whether or not we believe the illegal apparatus of WMD production that definitely is there is sufficient evidence of Saddam's intent. Posted by: Eamonn at February 2, 2004 04:21 PMPrivatize the spooks? Bring back the 'D' notice. Posted by: Frank Pulley at February 3, 2004 02:05 AMGrimReaper "The Duke of Wellington maintained three separate spy services during the Peninsular War and compared their performance carefully; the result was high-quality intelligence. At the very least, modern Britain should be capable of doing likewise." Marie Theresa also followed a similar principle, did she not? Someone once told me the Iron Duke studied her intelligence methodology. We seem to have four here, MI5, MI6, MOD and the BBC, judging by the transmissions of the latter over the past couple of days. Obviously doesn't work as well as either Marie T's or the Iron Duke's set up, though. Posted by: Frank Pulley at February 3, 2004 02:29 AMGrimReaper - why only three ? We have many more today which is why the JIC was created in 1936 to coordinate the information flow at the highest level.......it failed when Blar put an SIS man in charge for the first time.
Do you really think it is so cartoonish ? even the USA has a multiplicity of agencies......what they all lack is Arabic speaking agents who can blend into those cultures. BTW. Should Israel close down their agencies, none of which seem to have known anything about Iraq and they faced a biggr threat than we ever did ?
Eamonn: "Perhaps it all comes down to whether or not we believe the illegal apparatus of WMD production that definitely is there is sufficient evidence of Saddam's intent." Unfortunately it doesn't. The only basis found by the A-G - no doubt after a great deal of searching on Lawtel and some interesting interpretations - on which this country could LAWFULLY go to war was the stockpiles of WMD claimed to be held by Saddam. It's quite simple: no WMD's, no lawful war. I, for one, am not beholden to the idea of this country having gone to war in breach of international law. Posted by: BeefQueen at February 3, 2004 11:11 AM"It's quite simple: no WMD's, no lawful war" Twaddle ! "lawful war" ? What world do you inhabit ? If you think you stop dictators with prayer-books and a copy of Butterworths you'll have a very short life - a bit Hobbesian Posted by: Romulus at February 8, 2004 10:14 AM |
