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November 14, 2003
War in Iraq
Disturbing piece by William Kristol and Robert Kagan in America's Weekly Standard puts its finger on the question that's been troubling me. Is the Bush U-turn in Iraq a victory strategy -- or an exit strategy? The authors fear that Bush is preparing to cut and run; they point out that the Iraqis are not yet properly trained; and they add for good measure that there aren't enough troops on the ground, thanks to Donald Rumsfeld's parsimony. I agree that this whole manoeuvre has the smell of panic about it; the suggestion that the Bushies are making, that overnight enough Iraqis have suddenly managed to train themselves adequately, is clearly absurd. Where I think the authors are mistaken is to assume the US could hang around in Iraq long enough to train people from scratch -- or, indeed, that they should do so. Under the right direction, even Ba'athists can be turned to serve another master. The British are adept at doing this. This is what should have been done at the beginning. Can it be done now? Are the Americans yet realising the mistake they made in ignoring British advice-- or are they still in their bubble? Posted by melanie at November 14, 2003
Comments
Well, we did the same in Afghanistan. At least we're consistent. Posted by: Joanne at November 15, 2003 12:50 AMYou can't blame the US for wanting to get out as quickly as possible - they are on a hiding to nothing. If he stays he will be dammed and if he leaves he'll be damned. Maybe people would have been happier to leave Saddam in charge. One thing is for certain you never saw people protesting on the streets of London about Saddam and his practice of genocide. Posted by: Jon at November 15, 2003 01:54 AMCould the Americans be responding to European pressure? I certanly hope not. Posted by: kid charlemagne at November 15, 2003 02:05 AMOT - Another left-wing Jew hater comes out of the closet in Greece. Today, we can say that these little people are the root of evil," said Theodorakis, 78, a committed leftist and political activist who was jailed under the fascist junta that held power in Greece in the late 1960s and early 1970s. ++++++++++++++++++ Meanwhile, in Turkey they are blowing up synagogues. The old European disease is spreading. Posted by: Djinn & Tonic at November 15, 2003 09:03 AM"Under the right direction, even Ba'athists can be turned to serve another master. The British are adept at doing this. ... Are the Americans yet realising the mistake they made in ignoring British advice-- or are they still in their bubble?" There she goes again. I've just finished reading a piece about perhaps the most signal British success at counterinsurgency (written by the British ex-pat John O'Sullivan in the current National Review). The success was of course in Malaya; the counterinsurgency was conducted from 1946 to 1958 (that's 12 years); and it was some three years before the British started to get the upper-hand over the communist insurgents. It would be nice if Ms. Phillips (who of course is a very important person) could take five minutes to post on her site what "British advice" it is that the Americans are "ignoring". But I've offered this plaint before, and have concluded she's much too busy to read comments from the proles who visit her site. Posted by: George Peery at November 15, 2003 09:19 PMIt might be OK to have Baathists (party members who are not guilty of crimes against humanity and whose loyalties have been vetted) serve in relatively low-level positions (say, platoon leader or civil equivalent thereof), but to have them serve in higher-level positions would send a sinister message to the Iraqi people: nothing's changed. Posted by: David Foster at November 16, 2003 06:33 PMDoing the Alexander The Great bit, conquering not holiding could be expensive. Tribal societies like Iraq are really countries, and putting one tribe the Sunnis in charge with force to keep them there made it work for a while. Interesting how the Sunni Triangle is the source of trouble. If they pull out precipitously then Kurdistan will emerge to destabilise Iran and Turkey and Syria; and the shias will carve out their own paradise on Sunni corpses. That should give Saudi Arabia and Iran some cards to play. The US is learning what every imperial power has learned in history; getting in is easy; getting out is very hard. Only the French and British have recent experience as colonial powers there, and the US spent so much effort in the 1950s undermining them sponsoring Nasser and terrorists in Yemen to remove the British from Aden; and of course in Persia......MI6 once had great networks....but the US wanted in and The State Department + oil corporates bribed the Arabs; and the White House + CIA looked after Israel Posted by: Peter Williamson at November 18, 2003 12:56 PMWould anybody really care if Bush got a bullet in the neck? Posted by: Mark Sanderson at November 18, 2003 10:10 PMIn contrast to Mark Sanderson, I would. Perhaps mark Sanderson could append a list of people he would like to see murdered. Posted by: Peter Williamson at November 19, 2003 06:47 AMIt's not all lies - not all of it. That's the age-old dilemma. Posted by: Olsky Charles at December 10, 2003 09:17 PMThe important thing isn't doing, but knowing how you do it. Posted by: Rosenbaum Dennis at December 10, 2003 09:17 PMBoth dreams and people crash down. Posted by: Distler Barb at December 21, 2003 01:45 AMVery interesting things in you site Posted by: Brockway Kim at January 9, 2004 04:15 PM |
